Monday, 28 November 2016

The First Digital-Political-Financial Revolution is the Indian Demonetisation .

(via Sunny Narang)
I keep getting calls from people , especially young people , on how to make sense of this Cashless Demonetization Step of PM Modi , its timing , its scale of disruption , its political-economy .

There can be no real clarity as these are long term trends , on which even PM Modi has no real power , he can be slow or fast on further movement , but the movement is towards a Global Digital Revolution . 

And in no country till now the Political Class has made Cashless like a Policy Diktat . 

Throughout human history , political ideologies, religions , languages have been applied by diktats , Industrial revolution was a 400 year old process , but the Digital Revolution has no time to wait .

Google comes in 1995 . It actually is just about a 20 year old young man .

And in a tearing hurry , as the Globalization Dream falls , it can at least be saved on the Cloud .

So a small insight on Big Data , Big Consultants , Fake Ideas of Democracy and the rise and rise of few Urban Centres and Extreme Digitalisation.

It's a new animal and we need absolutely new tools . 

And only people as comfortable with the Digital and the Physical , the Cloud and the Soil can think of the Middle-Ways .

One thing I tell everyone now is , that not a single media out there is doing in depth research for anything . 

It's not just conscious lie-telling but few people today have the time to write deep or get funded for it and the academics are already many years too late . 

So the only research is now done by private think-tanks that also do well paid assignments for big corporations and governments . 

That means all knowledge that is "actionable" is now absolutely private . Whether quick intelligence or deep research , owned by secret agencies of the state or private intelligence.

What the public knows , is so shallow , that it really shows and means nothing .

So without any knowledge of what is happening , the public decides on mostly fake information.

And that proves all democracy is now built on fake assumptions . And you have to read every single piece with the understanding that there is a hint of some truth and we have to find out what it is actually saying , what it is not telling , and why . 

As the below headline , will show that the Delhi-NCR is now the biggest conglomerate both population and GDP-wise in 2012 PPP in India beating Mumbai . 

But the real information important for Corporations is what is not PPP but Income at Present Prices as an Apple IPhone is not sold at PPP but real present prices worldwide . 

The real importance of the Oxford Report is the Ultimate Growing Economic and Political, hence Cultural and Innovation concentration of the top 750 cities in the world, whose share of Global GDP will rise from 57% now to 61% in 2030 . 

So whether or not majority of people live in these 750 cities, it is here the power lies and the smartest , most talented, richest people will be living here of shift here . 

Ultimately Democracy is irrelevant . As structural economics , logistics , geopolitics decides on what will happen regardless of any kind of voting .

For example without the Aadhar backbone that Nandan Nilekani built under Congress-led UPA there could be no Jan Dhan accounts and no Cashless dream possible .

Hence Silicon-Valley led corporations will be working across so-called democratic terms and have long-term plans going 10-20 years , thinking strategically for a generation not just 5 year limits . 

In combination with Big Corporations there are the world's top advisory firms who have deep insights into trends and actual realities on the ground that is only available to big paymasters . 

But you can get trends if you read their public reports deeply . They all follow the Freemium Model . 

But who has the time ? Or the inclination and the Big Consultant will pay you way more than a journalist or an academic !

But then , Nature and Humans can suddenly shift loyalties and trends too , but that again is a low probability and the Hedge-Fund guys are on it by the nanosecond taking bets on every twist and turn , juts like betters in a Casino or Cricket . 

Whatever happens , the Casino always win .

And that is the Big Consultant and the Platforms ! 

And Both are On The Cloud, Virtual , Offshore and Multi-centered . 

If you have been planning back-ups of back-ups for decades with multiple servers in multiple locations to manage every strategic risk , then you understand , that whatever happens , you will have that instant to do quick shifts of focus and funds . Or just hold the flow.

Guys , the world is all Data and Waves , which is Numbers and Coding , whether you like it or not.

It has it Pirates as Hackers .

But the Global Industrial Revolution is Now Digital .

The Demonetisation , I see as the First Political-Financial Revolution led by the Global Cloud System and everyone is watching how it turns out . 

Its just another Gambit . 

As start-ups learn with every failure , they will learn from this too .

The Culture of failure is celebrated by the technology world like none else , as it is by the high-risk , high-return hedge fund venture capital world .

They lead from the edge of the edge , like George Soros and Zuckerberg in tandem . 

The final word is , that Democracy is Fake .

Not just economics , logistics , geopolitics but technology and finance also are now big players , both global in scale and fastest in speed , and highest risk taking ability . 

"Oxford Economics is one of the world's foremost independent global advisory firms, providing reports, forecasts and analytical tools on 200 countries, 100 industrial sectors and over 3,000 cities.

As per the latest analysis, the Mumbai extended urban agglomeration (EUA), consisting of Mumbai, Navi Mumbai, Thane, Vasai-Virar, Bhiwandi and Panvel, had a 2015 GDP of US $368 billion when seen in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), using a 2012 PPP conversion rate of Rs 15.5 per dollar. 

Against this, the Delhi EUA, consisting of Delhi NCR, Gurgaon, Faridabad, Noida and Ghaziabad, had a GDP at PPP of $370 billion, taking it to 30th position in the global ranking. The definition of Mumbai makes it roughly correspond to the Mumbai metropolitan region (MMR), while Delhi EUA is smaller than the National Capital Region (NCR).

The Oxford Economics forecast for 2030 shows that Delhi and Mumbai will move further up the list. While Delhi is predicted to be at the 11th spot, Mumbai will be 14th.

Mumbai EUA, with a lower population, scores over Delhi EUA in per capita terms. A TOI analysis of Oxford Economics figures puts Mumbai's per capita GDP at PPP at $16,881, while the same for Delhi is $15,745.

Prof Bino Paul, Tata Institute of Social Sciences (TISS), said post-liberalisation, Delhi National Capital Region (NCR) seems to have outpaced Mumbai metropolitan in physical infrastructure and social infrastructure.

Mumbai's high-cost economy is not favourable to business. The high cost of land and skilled labour does not provide the right incentives to attract investment—domestic and foreign," she said." 

But now go to the website :

The Global 750: forecasting the urban world to 2030

The emerging markets of India, Brazil, and China in particular, have been the story of the century so far, with rapid economic development driving poverty reduction and rising prosperity on an unprecedented scale. Meanwhile, having recovered from a profound financial crisis, most of the developed world is starting to return to solid growth.
But when we look below the national level, it is the world’s major cities that are the powerhouses of global growth. Teeming with industry and services, brimming with innovation, and home to swelling and increasingly more skilled and diverse labour forces, the world’s 750 biggest cities today account for some 57% of global GDP.

 By 2030 the 750 look set to contribute close to a staggering US$80 trillion to the world economy (61% of total world GDP) and, with it, offer vast commercial opportunity for those who can serve their needs in everything from office space to cooking oil.
The Oxford Economics Global Cities 2030 study is the indispensable source to navigating those opportunities to 2030. In this white paper executive summary, we set out just some of the themes and insights that emerge from this unparalleled urban forecasting exercise.
Some excerpts from the free report : 

South Asia will benefit as some Chinese cities moves up the manufacturing value chain… On the road to 2030, Asia’s cities will remain the factories of the world, but huge changes are afoot. Industry employment, notably in manufacturing, will decline in many advanced Asian cities like Tokyo, Osaka, Seoul and Taipei. They will be joined in that trend by cities like Bangkok and Shanghai—until now the industry powerhouses of Asia—as they become increasingly space-constrained and expensive locations for land and labour hungry industrial activities. 

As these north and east Asian cities continue up the manufacturing value chain and de-industrialise, a new tier of emerging cities—including Jakarta, Hà Noi, Delhi and Chongqing in inland China—are poised to benefit from being in the ‘industrial slipstream’ of China’s eastern seaboard cities. Africa’s cities, by contrast, look unlikely to capitalise on these manufacturing outsourcing and growth opportunities over the time horizon to 2030. 

Manufacturing in Africa will be constrained by lagging infrastructure despite having a large, growing and low-cost supply of labour. …with financial and business services stepping into the gap. While industry is on the move, financial and business services will partially step into the void left as manufacturing jobs exit the more expensive cities.

 By 2030, Indian and Chinese cities will boast some 25 million more financial and business services jobs. Beijing alone will have more jobs in this sector than any other city on the globe in 2030. Nevertheless, the leading European and US cities will continue to top the rankings in terms of their financial and business services contribution to global GDP.

Looking at the world’s top cities ranked by GDP per capita, it is clear that there are different models of urban success; industrial Portland, technological Helsinki, consumer Macao, professional-services hub Amsterdam, education and innovative Boston, and governance Washington DC. While the usual development story describes how the ‘average’ city evolves, aspiring cities also need to look as much within at their core assets and USPs and not ignore their comparative advantage. Wider changes in the environment, technology, in people’s attitudes and tastes and global costs are making a broader and new range of sectors viable in urban environments, allowing individual cites to lead the world in just one aspect of the broad economic canvas of opportunities. 

Methodology: The Global Cities 2030 study is linked directly to Oxford Economics’ world leading global macroeconomic, industry and existing cities & regions forecasting services. It has been built up from a rigorous, exhaustive and innovative bottom-up collection of official national and sub-national data, but given data gaps, has involved some estimation using the most sophisticated and evidence-based techniques available. 

The linkages to Oxford Economics’ wider suite of models ensures city level data and forecasts are anchored to national macro and industry data and outlooks. World’s largest 750 cities: The UN’s list of urban agglomerations with at least 750,000 inhabitants was the starting point for city coverage for Global Cities 2030. The list of cities from the UN was added to by, among other approaches, including strategically important cities, e.g. country capitals.

Overall a minimum population threshold of 400,000 was used, in most cases, to finalise the city list. The average size of cities across the 750 is 3.2 million people. Definition of urban geographies: Consistent with other urban research studies, the Global Cities 2030 study targeted a definition of cities on the basis of urban agglomerations (UAs) and metropolitan areas. These include the built-up area outside the historical or administrative core (i.e. city proper). 

Metros and UAs are, by definition, closer to self contained entities (e.g. functional economic geographies) than city-proper administrative definitions of cities. In other words a large proportion of the resident population are likely to live, work and spend within the metro/UA boundaries. 

Extensive global coverage across all continents and 140 countries: The 750 cities in the study span 140 countries and cover all world regions, including the most difficult to cover regions like African and the Middle East where data is more challenging. 

The 750 cities are made up of: 58 from North America, 139 from Europe, 322 from Asia, 9 from Oceania, 95 from Latin America & the Caribbean, 40 from the Middle East and 87 from Africa.

Oxford Economics has recently added 20 additional countries and cities to the 750 including smaller capitals such as Reykjavik and Podgorica, and larger data-challenging cities like Kabul and Tripoli.

Contact details to access Oxford Economics' global city forecasting services 

These individual services are all driven by our globally consistent country economic forecasts that cover over 200 economies around the world, employing Oxford Economics’ integrated Global Economic Model that ensures full internal consistency between all economies. The forecasts are updated quarterly and are used by a wide range of organisations from the B2C, real estate investment, utility and transport sectors to monitor and plan their activities in specific locations. Clients who wish to select a bespoke list of cities may do so, as required. 

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