(via Sunny Narang)
A quick calculation of total wealth of Urban vs Rural population in India and their debt/capital ratios : Rural India is 2% as compared to 25% in Urban India .
In
short Indian farmers have 40 crore acres of land , and even if we take
at an average of Rs.10 lac an acre (ranging from few crores in Haryana
to maybe 5 lacs an acre in arid parts ) its value is 400 lac crores. The
total valuation of the Indian share market is 100 lac crores, total
bank deposits are another 100 lac crores .
Total
bank debt in India is about 70 lac crores , Money lenders will have
another Rs. 30 lac crores , so total debt at most is Rs. 100 lac crores .
Though Rural India will not be more than Rs. 10 lac crores .
As Household Savings are the 80% of Indian savings , they continue to invest more in real-estate and gold, than equity .
"After
peaking at 12% in 2009-10, financial savings as a percentage of India's
gross national disposable income (GNDI) had dipped to a low of 7% in
2012-13. That trend has now reversed. RBI estimates that the savings in
financial assets in 2014-15 moved up to 7.5%. In
contrast, savings in physical assets (like real estate and gold), an
old favourite among Indians, are down. From a high of 14.8% in 2011-12
it came down to 10.4% in 2013-14 (the latest period for which government
data is available).
World
Gold Council, says today India has over 22,000 tonnes of gold in
household savings, which would be worth over Rs 60 lakh crore. "
My call is that even Gold is more held by rural than urban India .
So for me rural India has much more safe assets than urban India .
Even if I take all of Urban Real-Estate market at
In
42 cities real-estate is worth 25-30 lac crores , pan urban India at
most it will be another 100 lac crores in 6000 plus towns , which are
many rural-urban .
So
the total assets , real-estate plus shares plus FD's of urban India are
about 300 lac crores plus 20-30 lac crores Gold , while Rural Indian
assets are about 400 lac crores plus 30-40 lac crores gold .
Indian assets are then 350 lac crore urban 450 lac crores rural: Total 800 lac crores (GDP is 130 lac crores) .
So
Urban India has against a capital of 350 lac crore , a 90 lac crore
debt while Rural India has a Rs. 10 lac crore debt against an asset of
Rs. 450 lac crores ! A 25% debt/capital ratio in urban India versus a
2% in rural India !
Housing prices in 42 major cities across India could drop by up to 30 per cent over 6-12 months after the demonetisation of high-value notes, wiping out over Rs 8 lakh crore worth market value of residential properties sold and unsold by developers since 2008.
"In the aftermath of demonetisation impact on Indian real estate sector, market value of residential property of Rs 802,874 crore is expected to be wiped off in the next 6-12 months," PropEquity said in a statement. "
"In the aftermath of demonetisation impact on Indian real estate sector, market value of residential property of Rs 802,874 crore is expected to be wiped off in the next 6-12 months," PropEquity said in a statement. "
So if this is the case , then rural India still has lot of loan collateral compared to urban India .
Even
if the 18 crore rural households took an average of Rs 1 lac loan , it
would be Rs. 18 lac crores at most , still less than 5% of rural
agricultural land value.
There
are about 330 million census-houses in India according to 2011 census
and about 24.5 million are vacant and so the occupied are 306 million.
Of these 306 million , 236 million are used as residences . 8.5 million as residence plus work. And rest for other uses . So as homes there are about 245.5 million .
And
only 90 million have concrete roofs , another 26.5 million have
machine-made tiles . That is about 116 million of 306 odd million have
so-called "modern" permanent roofs , which is about 33% .
135 million have grass/thatch/burnt brick/traditional tiles , another 50 million have asbestos/GI/aluminium/Steel sheets . n
These figures will show you how India actually lives .
India
is a great mix of permanent, semi-permanent , always-in-construction ,
temporary housing . Using tradition, modern , a mix of both construction
materials .
Now
lets look at the state of rural households on debt . Average debt of
an agricultural household in rural India is about Rs.50,000/- but Rs.1-2
lacs in Punjab and all Southern Indian states .
And the lower your land holding or you are landless , you will most probably take a loan from a money-lender .
And 85% of the 138 million holdings are marginal holdings or less than 1 hectare , which is 117 million are marginal farmers .
There are almost 25 crore Jan Dhan accounts , and about 13 crore post office bank accounts .
Total
money in Jan Dhan and post office accounts maybe near 7-8 lac crores
while in the Scheduled Banking system its 100 lac crore plus .
"India’
banking system reported total deposits of Rs 100 lakh crore for the
first time ever in September, 2016, data released by the RBI show,
reports Shakti Patra in Mumbai. With demand deposits crossing R10 lakh
crore and time deposits crossing the Rs 90 lakh crore mark, the month
saw the highest-ever monthly rise of Rs 5.32 lakh crore — more than the
total deposits in the banking sector 20 years back."
That means the poorest 85-90% Indians collectively have very little , maybe less than 10-15% of total bank deposits in India .
"According
to the census, there are a total number of 24.39 crore households in
the country, of which 17.91 crore live in villages.
Of these, 10.69 crore households are considered as deprived."
Of these 17.9 crore households , about 13.8 crore households have land of some kinds , and 4 crores have no land .
So
the total Debt of 18 odd crore rural families is about Rs. 9 lac crores
(taking at Rs.50,000 per household) . While Total Bank loans in India
are about 70 lac crores , with Rs 13 lac crores stressed corporate debt .
That means the poorest 85-90% also hold only about 10-15% of all debt in Indian banking system .
"India
Ratings, a Fitch associate, estimates that one-fifth (21% precisely) of
the total bank credit is stressed. Total bank credit at the end of
March 2016 stands at Rs 70 trillion (lakh crore)."
Just the mutual fund assets are another 14 lac crores in 2016 , while the stock-market capitalisation is about 100 lac crores.
"An
Indian agricultural household on an average has an outstanding loan of
Rs 47,000 while their monthly income is a meagre Rs 6,426, according to
latest official data.
Loans included all kinds of outstanding borrowings irrespective of the purpose for which loans were taken. Around 52 % agricultural households in rural India were estimated to be indebted at the time of the survey titled ‘Income, Expenditure, Productive Assets and Indebtedness of Agricultural Households in India’.
The survey was conducted in 2013 and its report released in 2016.
Kerala has the highest outstanding loan amount at Rs 2.13 lakh per agricultural household.
At
third position, Punjab with an average outstanding loan of Rs 1.19 is
the only state outside south that has found space in top six.
The average outstanding loan of an agricultural household in Andhra Pradesh is Rs 1.23 lakh while in Tamil Nadu it is Rs 1.15 lakh, Karnataka Rs 97,200 and Telangana Rs 93,500, according to the 70th National Sample Survey.
The survey said 77.7 % of agricultural households in Kerala had outstanding loans.
The average outstanding loan of an agricultural household in Andhra Pradesh is Rs 1.23 lakh while in Tamil Nadu it is Rs 1.15 lakh, Karnataka Rs 97,200 and Telangana Rs 93,500, according to the 70th National Sample Survey.
The survey said 77.7 % of agricultural households in Kerala had outstanding loans.
Among
agricultural households with less than 0.01 hectares land, the largest
amount of outstanding was reported by agricultural households in Andhra
Pradesh (Rs 2.40 lakh) followed by Rajasthan (Rs 1.694 lakh) and Kerala
(Rs 1.69 lakh).
The
survey also showed that around 60 % of the outstanding loans were taken
from institutional sources, which included co-operative society (14.8
%) and banks (42.9 %).
Among non-institutional sources, money lenders (25.8 %) had the major share in terms of outstanding loans.
One of the concerns would be the poor rate of lending by banks to farmers with less than 0.01 hectares land.
Among non-institutional sources, money lenders (25.8 %) had the major share in terms of outstanding loans.
One of the concerns would be the poor rate of lending by banks to farmers with less than 0.01 hectares land.
According
to the survey, 63.7 % of such agricultural households had outstanding
loans taken from money lenders while it was a mere 12.9 % from the
banks."
Until
the 1999-2000 survey, the NSSO schedules were designed to record the
information on extent of land up to two decimal places.
As
a result, the smallest land holding recorded was 0.01 hectares. Any
household having land less than 0.01 hectares was treated as landless. 1
hectare is 10,000 square meters , 0.01 hectare is only 100 sq meters ,
or about 1000 sq feet .
As
per Agriculture Census 2010-11, total number of operational holdings
was estimated as 138.35 million. The total operated area was 159.59
million hectare. (1 Hectare is 2.47 acre & 1 acre is 4046 Sq.mtr) or
about a total of 16 crore hectares or 40 crore acres and at the average
rate of Rs. 10 lac an acre the total land value is Rs 400 lac crores .
The
average size of the holding has been estimated as 1.15 hectare. The
average size of holdings has shown a steady declining trend over various
Agriculture Censuses since 1970-71.
| |||
No comments:
Post a Comment